Paa has been one of the most talked about films in India past few weeks. It is a film that features all the Bachchans (not counting Aishwarya Rai) in some capacity. However box office success, as evidenced recently by Karan Johar's Saif Ali Khan-Vivek Oberoi-Kareena Kapoor flop Kurbaan, is not contingent on just being talked about. Box Office hits are rare few and critically acclaimed box office flops are many. Let us examine the pros and cons of the film Paa in terms of its box office viability.
SIGNS WHY PAA MAY NOT WORK AT THE BO
- Box office initial of Aladin & The Last Lear: The last 2 Amitabh Bachchan movies have had poor opening weeks in India, less that 8 crores each.
- Amitabh Bachchan's look in the film - Cinema is ultimately a visual medium. The look is a major part of box office. This is probably one of the reasons why Bachchan in Aladin as genie getup didn't click. In the past, Bachchan has rarely worked big at the box office when he is not appearing as 'Amitabh Bachchan' . That is to say, booming baritone, long hair parted from the top, body lean in appearance, preferably clean shaven, french goatee maybe, but no beard. Even movies where Amitabh Bachchan came in with a mustache have had a tough time. Here he is going ET on the Indian public.
- Potential for overcharacterization/talking down to the audience - It is easy to get carried away with novelty of such characterizations as Auro to underestimate the audience intelligence and fill up the movie with dialogues that are over-indulgent of the character.
- Release date shifted - Paa was set to release on Nov 14 then got shifted to December 4. This is a sign of uncertainty and perhaps poor release planning.
- Not enough hero-heroine focus - One will be hardpressed to find hits over the last 20 years that don't have a significant hero-heroine angle.
- Mrs. Jaya Bachchan made narrator - If done discretely, this could work. But the USP of the film is the inversion of the real life father-son dynamic. Introducing the real life father's real life wife, thus possibly may not be the best idea as it may undermine the world and substance of the movie.
SIGNS THAT PAA WILL BE A HIT AT THE BO
- Goodwill value for Amitabh Bachchan in lead roles - No matter his number of flops, there may still be a certain amount of goodwill in Indian mainstream for Amitabh Bachchan. When a movie has him in the main role and that's important, the public senses it's the case and they tend to respond. Not in as large numbers maybe as they once did (Hum, 1991 for example which embarked on a recordbreaking start), but enough to save a film. For example, after Nishabd, Cheeni Kum should have had a dismal opening. But that wasn't how it turned out to be even though CK released just weeks after Nishabd.
- Premise & cultural context - Last Lear was bringing Shakespeare in English, and Aladin, an attempt to ingratiate Arabian fantasy into Hindi cinema. Not something in the fancy of the homeland public. Concept for PAA is different as it draws ultimately from core Indian values and sensibilities, while at the same time presenting it in a novel inverted manner.
- Amitabh-Abhishek Bachchan - Regardless of genre, after Abhishek Bachchan-John Abraham (Dostana, Dhoom 1), this is probably the safest male star combo at the box office in the film industry right now. Their screen rapport is liked by a majority of Indian public. Their first two films were historically significant. Bunty & Babli, a comedy-adventure, was the biggest box office moneyspinner of 2005; and Sarkar I, a political thriller, too broke the Bombay box office opening record in July 2005. Even in worst case, when in full roles, the duo has not starred in a film that has not been a top 10 grosser of its year.
- Efficient cost control - At 15 crores, Paa is almost un-floppable. It could cover the entire cost in a few days.
- Abhishek Bachchan - Vidya Balan: No actress since Rani Mukherjee (Bunty & Babli, Yuva) perhaps complements Abhishek Bachchan as well as his leading lady as Vidya Balan does. Their little talked about screen chemistry could be the film's secret USP for repeat audiences if the film clicks.
- Amitabh Bachchan-Paresh Rawal: Whenever Paresh Rawal has shown up in an Amitabh Bachchan starrer, the movie has tended to be a box office hit, be it Baghban in 2003 or Cheeni Kum in 2007.
- Auro - The character of Auro as enacted by Amitabh Bachchan appears to be of the same ilk and have similar appeal as perhaps Forrest Gump in Hollywood, with its own set of charms and eccentricities for the audience to live with and recall. Amitabh Bachchan has created a number of screen characters that are legendary: be it Vijay, Don, Iqbal, Anthony; or even the 'Kachcha Paapad Pucca Paapad' doing Kishen of Yaarana. Auro could be another memorable character with its own unique charm and draw.
- R. Balkrishnan: As proven in Cheeni Kum, the director Balki understands Bachchan the actor and Bachchan the star, without being in his awe like some of the other new comers are. This director is a major strength for the film's box office.
So there are reasons for the film to be a box office hit, and reasons for it not to be. On balance, the film has more innate positives than negatives going for it. However the final verdict will depend on whether the film has been made with the emphasis on the strength of those positives above more so than the negatives. If so, Paa will become ABCL's first hit, and probably a big one, otherwise not.
